March 2009
Healthy Tribe Will Triumph
Season Preview: Cleveland Indians
Projected MLB Rank: 7th — AL Rank: 3rd — AL Central Rank: 1st — Record: (90-72)
AL Central Champions
They needed a thirdbaseman. Check. They needed a closer. Check. They need their middle of the lineup players healthy. Check and Check. So why not the Indians in 2009? They are good. Especially in such a weak division, they should take advantage of the oppurtunity. They turned it around last season. At the all star break they were 40-52. They ended the season at .500 going 41-29 in the second half and saving Eric Wedge his job.
Pertaining to injuries, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are both back from injuries. Last year neither played a full season, and the games they did play–they played hurt. Expect the production there that they didn’t get last year which changes the whole complexion of their season.
Martinez is expected to start at first to keep him healthy which opens up the catcher position for Kelly Shoppach. Last year he hit .261 with 21 homeruns. He should put up the same kind of power numbers this season from behind the plate. He also slugged .517 last season. Where in this mix will Ryan Garko fit? He drove in 90 runs in this lineup last season and hit over .300 in the second half but with Martinez at first and not being able to catch, Garko has no where except maybe the outfield. If Ben Francisco doesn’t do what’s expected of him (steal bases) maybe Garko will work his way into the lineup.
The rest of the outfield is rounded out by Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo. Choo had a monster second half and in 94 total games last season he hit .309 and slugged .549 with 14 homers and 28 doubles. Sizemore is just, Sizemore. He makes nightly appearences on web gems and can flat out hit. I don’t expect him to hit .268 again and his 33 homeruns and 90 RBIs have potential to increase, he’s still 26.
The middle of the infield is manned by Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera found ways to get on base last season and hopefully will continue that this season. Peralta set a few career highs last year and hopefully will keep up the solid production numbers (23 homeruns / 83 RBIs). The trade for Mark DeRosa brings in a solid veteran option at third base. His career year last year included a .285 average, 21 dingers, and 87 RBIs.
Cliff Lee displayed unbelievable command last season and in reward he gets to display a Cy Young award on his mantlepiece. There’s no reason to believe he doesn’t have the same season again posting a 2.54 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP while going 22-3. I’m hearing good things about Fausto Carmona this offseason, to the extent that he’s regained his 2007 form in which he won 19 games and posted 3.06 ERA.
I think Carl Pavano can turn around his career here in Cleveland. After having a career year with the Marlins (like 5 years ago?) he scored huge with a nice contract in the Bronx, which didn’t really pan out. Pavano got shelled, and not by bats, by injuries. Now he has a new setting in the AL Central. Scott Lewis, who’s 25, had four solid starts with Cleveland last season posting a 2.63 ERA along with 1.08 WHIP. The lefty has nice control and should stick aorund in the Indians rotation. Fifth starter Anthony Reyes is coming back from injury. Prior to the injury last season, he was
doing a nice job for Cleveland. In his six starts with the Indians, he went 2-1 with a 1.84 ERA.
Kerry Wood comes in to Progressive Field(?), I hate the name so I’ll continue to call it Jacobs Field, and he’s the closer. Last year in Chicago he tacked up 34 saves with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Joe Smith, Jensen Lewis, and Rafael Perez do a nice job out of the bullpen. But Rafael Betancourt and Masa Kobayashi need to lower their ERAs and WHIPs for the Tribe coming out of the bullpen.
I am all about this Indians team this year in the weak division they’re in. My MVP and Cy Young candidates are each on this team along with a lot of underrated bats and arms. I think that if Lewis and Reyes can have solid years in the rotation, the Indians will be the AL Central champions.
And a side note: GO PSU in the NIT
Where do Sheff and his 499 Fit?
Today the Tigers released Gary Sheffield due to the fact that they would like more versatility out of the DH spot. Sheffield didn’t see it coming, and according Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, Sheffield can still hit but he just wasn’t the right fit for Detroit this coming season. So where is the right fit for Gary?
The Current Option
Philadelphia Phillies
As soon as Sheffield was let go by the Tigers, Geoff Jenkins was cut by the Phils and GM Ruben Amaro reached out to Sheff because the Phils have been looking for a righthanded bat off the bench all offseason. Whether Sheffield is willing to come off the bench is the question. Personally, I don’t want him. He was one of my favorite players while with the Marlins but I just don’t want him on the Phils. They have a good clubhouse chemistry right now and Sheffield has been known to cause a stir in a clubhouse here and there. Considering the fact he wouldn’t be starting, he would probably be cause a problem. I don’t like or want him on the Phillies.
Ray of Sunshine Option
Tampa Bay Rays
Gabe Gross doesn’t exactly turn heads but they did bring in Matt Joyce this offseason as well. I don’t think Sheffield goes here either but there is potential. Ta
mpa Bay seems to be an “end of the career” stop for many future Hall of Famers.
The Unrealistic Option
Florida Marlins
How cool would it be to see him back in teal to hit his 500th homerun. He hit 122 homeruns while with the Marlins from 1993 to 1998. He just doesn’t really fit there either. The corner outfield spots seem to belong to Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida. I just think it would be cool to go off as a Marlin, and maybe go into the Hall of Fame a Marlin (he did win a World Series there).
Basically, I don’t see him fitting in anywhere. I’d like to see him in Florida, but we all know that’s not going to happen. He’ll find a team if he doesn’t demand at bats and is willing to come off the bench but whether he faces that fact and finds a team before the season starts is beyond me.
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THANKS GEOFF JENKINS
As I mentioned earlier, Jenkins was released by the Phillies today. They owed him 8 million dollars on his contract. As much of a let down he was in Philly (.246 average / 9 homeruns / 29 RBIs), I would still like to thank him for the good attitude he held throughout the season while not starting and for his game five heroics in the World Series.
Jenkins was always on the fence of the dugout cheering on his teammates and was always congratulating guys coming into the dugout. Whenever you look at a picture of the Phillies winning a series in the playoffs, he was on the field celebrating with the regulars before everyone else on the bench (heck I even think he beat Rollins to the mound for the celebration once).
Also, he got the first at-bat in part two of game five in the World Series and crashed a double off the wall to get things going. It was one of the best moments of the playoffs for me because he had struggled all season and lost his platoon job when Werth became the everyday starter. Then he got up to the plate and took full advantage of the situation (I thought it was gone initially).
So honestly Jenkins, Thanks and I wish you luck elsewhere.
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CHAN HO EARNS FIFTH STARTER SPOT
Chan Ho Park remains the last one standing. He beat out Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick, and lastly JA Happ to the fifth spot in the rotation to start the season. Their spring totals:
Park: 2-0 — 2.53 ERA — 25 SO — 2 BB — 21.1 INN
Happ: 0-0 — 3.15 ERA — 14 SO — 6 BB — 20 INN
It was awful close and personally, I wanted Happ to be our fifth starter because he is the future and he showed flashes of reliability last season in eight games. But it’s also hard to argue with 25 strikeouts in about 21 innings and only two walks. Keep up the good work Chan Ho, because in this town, there’s a short leash.
‘Backs Bite will be Strong in 2009
Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected
MLB Rank: 8th — NL Rank: 5th — NL West Rank: 2nd — Record: (89-73)
The Diamondbacks are loaded with potential. Whether that potential is due to pan out this year is remained to be seen. The young players that made positive strides in 2008 will continue to blossom in 2009. That blossoming will lead to a playoff push.
Stephen Drew leads the way after he raised his average and on base percentage in the second half last season. The Diamondbacks shortstop is now 26 and should build upon his .291 average, 21 homeruns, .333 OBP, 44 doubles, 11 triples, and .502 slugging percentage. Even if he doesn’t have a better season, his 2008 was solid. Maybe Mark Reynolds would have a definate starter job if he didn’t hit .239 last year and strikeout… and commit error after error. Chad Tracy will certainly take some time from him at third, even if Reynolds hit 28 homeruns and drove in 97 runs.
Leftfielder Conor Jackson will hopefully build upon his 2008, in which he hit .300 with 12 homers and 75 RBIs. He’s 26 now and will hopefully develop some more power. Centerfielder Chris Young will also hopefully raise his average. He hit for .248 and if he could raise his batting average, maybe he could even build upon his 22 homeruns and 85 RBIs that he posted last season. Moving to rightfield, we all know about his brother “Bossman Junior,” but what about Justin Upton? He’s only 21 and has so much power potential and should definately improve on his 2008 statistics.
Chad Tracy should start at first, but initially we’ll have to see how he is after offseason knee surgery. If he doesn’t start at first, Jackson will move in there which would open up an outfield spot for Eric Byrnes. Byrnes, who is also coming back from injuries, will have to play his way to earn a starting spot. Chris Snyder will start at catcher and should improve upon his 2008 season and hopefully hit over .250 with possibly 20 homeruns. Felipe Lopez was brought in during the offseason and the Diamondbacks hope he continues what he was doing at the end of last season.
Brandon Webb, a perennial Cy Young candidate, has become one of the most reliable starters in the league. Coupled with Dan Haren as the number two, they are one of the most unnoticed one-two punches in the league. Haren posted 16 wins with a 3.33 ERA and 206 strikeouts. Doug Davis and Jon Garland are reliable as the three and four starters. Garland doesn’t strikeout too many hitters but will give the Dbacks a chance to get a W everytime he goes out to toe the rubber. Young stud Max Scherzer started seven games last season and looks to have a bid for the last rotation spot. In 16 total games last season, Scherzer struck out 66 hitters in 56 innings and posted a 3.05 ERA.
Chad Qualls is the prounounced closer after he took advantage of the late season chance to close ballgames he got last year. He saved nine games and in 77 total games he posted a 2.81 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Big righthander Jon Rauch assumes the setup role after he spent time with the Nationals and Diamondbacks last season and posted a 4.14 ERA in 74 total appearences. Arizona also brings in two relievers from the NL East. Tom Gordon who was a mainstay on the DL in Philly looks to rebound in the desert. Scott Schoeneweis also joins a bullpen after posting a 3.34 ERA in 73 total games. Gordon and Schoeneweis join a bullpen of young arms that will get every chance to succeed.
Overall, the Diamondbacks are still young but will continue to improve every game. If they don’t make the playoffs this season, expect Arizona to be in the playoffs next year and years to come.
Underrated Cards Hope to Improve
Season Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
Projected MLB Rank: 9th (t) — NL Rank: 6th (t) — NL Central Rank: 2nd -
- Record: (88-74)
The Cardinals have all the makings of a run for October, but those makings are somehow overlooked. With a solid rotation, reliable bullpen, and underrated hitters–I will not be suprised when the Cards are still in the playoff hunt come mid-September.
Here’s a look at their projected rotation for the upcoming season:
1. Adam Wainwright
In 20 starts last season, Wainwright posted a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and chalked up 11 wins. In his second season as a starter, his numbers were a good improvement on his 2007 season. Expect the Cards ace to top 200 innings and win over 15 games if he pitches a full season.
2. Kyle Lohse
Having a career year in 2008, Lohse proved that he can be reliable as he won the most games (15) and had the lowest ERA of his career (3.78). I would not be suprised to see him do it again.
3. Todd Wellemeyer
Another player who had a career year in 2008 is Wellemeyer. The former reliever tacked up 13 wins and held a 3.71 ERA. I would expect the same out of this year for him, along with some injury potential (having been converted to a starter last year).
4. Chris Carpenter
Finally back from injury, Carpenter posted a 1.88 ERA in three starts late last season. While it would be a suprise to see him 2005 form again, Carpenter is the true number two in this rotation, which pushes Lohse and Wellemeyer back in to more reasonable roles.
5. Joel Pineiro
Pineiro has had a rocky career but seems to have found a nice back of the rotation job in St. Louis. Last year, he went 7-7 with a 5.15 ERA.
The bullpen has great young arms and the veteran experience needed to succeed. The veteran experience is provided by 36-year old Ryan Franklin. Franklin, who was the Cards closer for some time last season, saved 17 games with a 3.55 ERA and is a nice veteran option if the other two potential closers don’t pan out as planned. Lefty Trever Miller is another veteran option who recently had some playoff experience in Tampa Bay.
The closer job looks like it’s gone to Jason Motte. He lacks big league experience with only 12 games last season but in those 12 games he posted a 0.82 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 11 innings. He’s showed more of the same this spring with a 1.74 ERA and 15 strikeouts in about 10 innings. He wins the job over, who I thought had the job from the experience he gained at the end of the year last year, Chris Perez. Saving 7 games last year for St. Louis, Perez provides the option just in case Motte doesn’t get the job done. Perez’s 3.86 ERA in 7 innings is most likely the reason for the job going to Motte. Expect him to be the set-up man. Although I wouldn’t be suprised if the Cards started going closer by committee during the season.
The Cardinals outfield has the potential to be one of the best in the league. Last year, Ryan Ludwick really came out of nowhere to hit for nearly .300 while driving in 113 runs and hitting 37 homeruns. Not to mention his .591 slugging percentage. Ludwick is in his prime, so expect the same kind of year for him. Resurgent pitcher turned outfielder Rick Ankiel has some great power as he hit 25 homeruns and drove in 71 runs last year but doesn’t hit for a high average and whiffs a ton. He’s still only young into his second career though, so the patience has the potential to be there. It now looks as if young stud Colby Rasmus will be the starting leftfielder for the Cardinals this season. The 22 year old is a top prospect, and now that Skip Schumaker has won the second base job, left field seems to be all Rasmus’. Fourth outfielder Chris Duncan provides some nice pop off the bench and a good starting option in case of injury.
Until the return of Troy Glaus, it looks as if David Freese will get the shot to start at third base. This kid tore it up in minors and has the potential to do the same in the big leagues, maybe not this year, but he will show some flashes of potential. Secondbaseman Skip Schumaker should bat at the top of the order and give Albert Pujols a bunch of chances to drive him home. Yadier Molina, who has shown improvement at the plate the past few years batting .216, .275, and .304 last season hopefully keeps up the average and that would be a plus to the catching job he done behind the dish. There is a weak spot here however, it’s spelled K-H-A-L-I-L. If shortstop Khalil Greene can continue what he’s done this spring, then it’s not a weak spot (hitting .418 with 17 RBIs). But if he’s not doing that, well, let’s just say last year he hit .213.
This lineup has all the potential to be productive and drive home runs and the rotation and bullpen will certainly keep the Cards in the game. I expect success out of St. Louis this year but not in the form of the playoffs.
Oh yea, I forgot they have this guy…
Happy Birthday Cy Young
Today is March 29th (it’s past midnight, so it technically is) and it’s the late Cy Young’s birthday. Born March 29, 1867, Young had a career 511-316 record with 749 complete games and a 2.63 career ERA playing 22 seasons for the Cleveland Spiders, St. Louis Perfectos then Cardinals, Boston Americans then Red Sox, and Cleveland Naps. He’s known most to the baseball fan due to the fact that he has a coveted award named after him. So, here’s some of my favorite Cy Young award winners…
That I’ve never seen pitch
Steve Carlton and Sandy Koufax
That I grew up watching
Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux
That I look forward to continue watching
Tim Lincecum
San Fran Needs Offense for Success
Season Preview: San Francisco Giants
Projected MLB Rank: 9th (t) — NL Rank: 6th (t) — NL West Rank: 3rd — Record: (88-74)
The Giants had a rough season last year with a 72-90 record with few highlights, with the 
exception of star righthander Tim Lincecum. This year I would expect a difference if the offense can find a way to produce some runs. They were second to last in the league last year in runs per game with 3.95 and were the only team in the major leagues to not top 100 homeruns as a team. This year I think that will change.
They have a bunch of good young players that should step up and improve their batting from last year. A big part of the improvement should come from thirdbaseman Pablo Sandoval. The 22 year old hit .345 with 3 homeruns and 24 RBIs in 41
games last season. Once he gains some patience at the plate, watch out for this kid. Quick leftfielder Fred Lewis should get on base and steal some bases for this lineup and give the middle of the order players a chance to drive in some runs.
Along with Sandoval, the middle of that lineup should consist of veterans Bengie Molina and Randy Winn. Molina nearly hit .300 last season while hitting 16 homeruns and driving in 95 runs. Winn hit over .300 and provides a little bit of production while stealing some bases at the same time. Aaron Rowand also has the potential to hit in the middle of the order. He doesn’t hit for too much power, but he’s as blue-collar as it gets concerning his work on the field.
The right side of the infield consists of guys who are competing for starting spots. The projected starters are Travis Ishikawa and Kevin Frandsen at first and second bases, respectively. Ishikawa doesn’t hit for much power but posts a good on base percentage. Also in the running for the firstbase job is John Bowker and even Sandoval, if he doesn’t start at third. Frandsen and Emmanuel Burriss seem to be the main candidates for the secondbase job. Shortstop is a position they upgraded this offseason by bringing in veteran Edgar Renteria. Last year with the Tigers, Renteria hit .270 with an OBP of .317 while driving in 55 runs
.
As we know, in baseball, pitching wins ballgames. The Giants certainly have pitching. It all starts with reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. With the struggling offense last season, Lincecum found a way to chalk up 18 wins while having the lowest ERA in the National League and leading the entire league in strikeouts. In three full seasons, righty Matt Cain has yet to breakout as he’s posted an ERA in the high threes and having similar strikeout totals. He’s still only 24, so all hope in not lost in the young Cain.
Another offseason acquisition, Randy Johnson, should help this team out a bunch. The future hall of fame lefthander is 45 years young and can still pitch well. Last season he posted a 3.91 ERA and won 11 games. Then fellow lefty Barry Zito, who seems to haven’t been the same since he got to San Fran in 2007, is now considered the fourth starter. One thing he has proved is that he’s reliable despite the high ERA, WHIP, and bad strikeout to walk ratios. The fifth starter looks like it will be Jonathan Sanchez who is a good power pitcher that needs to find his control if he wants to stay a major league pitcher.
The offseason acquisitions continue as we move to the bullpen. Southpaw Jeremy Affeldt, coming over from the Reds has great stuff and will be in the set up mix along with fellow winter add on Bob Howry. Howry had a rough year in 2008 statistically but I think he fits in with the Giants nicely. Rounding out the solid bullpen in righty Sergio Romo (2.12 ERA / 0.71 WHIP / 29 games), lefty Alex Hinshaw (3.40 ERA / 48 games), Merkin Valdez (1.69 ERA / 17 games), and many others. Brian Wilson will get many chances for saves once again as he posted 41 of them last season. He posts a nice strikeout rate but last season had a high ERA and WHIP.
I think that this pitching staff may be the most underrated in the league (thus why I have them ranked so highly). Look for a Blue Jays-esque season with the Giants as I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs but I have them tacking a win total in the high eighties. Awesome pitching staff with improving bats could lead to a productive year by the bay.
Brace Yourself Bronx
Season Preview: New York Yankees
Projected MLB Rank: 11th — AL Rank: 4th — AL East Rank: 2nd — Record: (87-75)
American League Wild Card Winners
You think I’m kidding? Well I’m not. I do have the Yankees not ranked in my top ten teams this year.
Again, what you have just read, is correct.
Sure, I think the Yanks will make the playoffs. And of course they have the best rotation in the division, if not the league. But there’s something about the team that isn’t attractive to me.
Let’s start with what is though–that rotation. I actually have them ranked second in the entire league in the starting rotation category. A huge portion of what has them there is the two offseason acquisitions AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia. Sabathia has basically been declared the ace of the staff, recieving the starting job for both opening day in Baltimore and the home opener against the Indians. How can you not call him the ace? He did things last season for the Brewers that really no one even dreamed of. His arm and determination picked up that team and carried them into their short stay in October. Then there’s Burnett. Moving across the division from a team that could have won the division maybe if they were in the Central, to a team that has had the potential to win the division for the past 15 years and counting. AJ is a huge strikeout pitcher and a great compliment to Sabathia as the number two. What could scare Yankees fans is his potential for injury. He gets hurt all the time. He also has been known to pitch his best during contract seasons. My thought of Burnett is, his ERA will probably hover around 4.50 and when he’s fully healthy–then he’ll win you ballgames.
Chien-Ming Wang will also be pitching a full season this time around. Hopefully interleague play doesn’t cause him injuries again. He needs to regain some of the control he lost last season before the injury if he wants to make a big contribution to this team.This spring he has done a nice job thus far posting a 3.24 ERA in 16 innings while walking two and striking out seven. Andy Pettite, who turns 37 this season, should give the Yankees reliability as he returns. The fifth starter looks like it will be Joba Chamberlain (for now). They could make him a reliever by May, then a starter by July, then a reliever again by September, perhaps with some injuries in between. Just kidding. But in all seriousness, they need to settle on a role for this guy and stop messing with his arm.
Mariano Rivera anchors a bullpen that isn’t all too great. I feel like Rivera is never going to change. He’s always going to be this good. Damaso Marte had a nice strikeout rate last season in 65 innings but posted an ERA over 4.00. Edwar Ramirez looks like he will be the set up man. Although he has good stuff, he also has some control problems. Jose Veras also has control problems, but should make the 25 man roster. A highlight other than Rivera is Brian Bruney. In 32 games last season, Bruney posted a 1.83 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and almost a strikeout per inning. The bullpen certainly has the potential to be effective, a few pitchers just need to establish their control first and cut down on the walks.
Then there’s the lineup. Some love it. Some hate it. Without Alex Rodriguez, I’m one of those haters. It’s getting to the point where Jorge Posada will have to rest more often, and Yankees fans shouldn’t like Jose Molina playing twice a week for their team. Moving on to Robinson Cano. If he’s supposed to be your top of the lineup guy, he should have an OBP higher than .305.
Captain Jeter. Still one of the best at going the other way with the ball but has become one of the worst fielding shortstops in the league and didn’t have a great WBC. Pertaining to bad fielders, let’s talk about Johnny Damon. He can still hit for .300, as he proved last season–but with Hideki Matsui in the DH role, it’s going to be an adventure in left field at New Yankee Stadium. It seems as if the quietest player with a huge bat in this lineup is Xavier Nady. He drove in 97 runs last year, so don’t overlook him. He’s basically won the rightfield spot (as if the .220 hitting Nick Swisher was putting up a legitimate fight). The centerfield job seems to have gone to Brett Gardner (who has Michael Bourn syndrome). He’s fast, but he’ll only get the Yanks the steals once he gets on base. Really though, anything is better than Melky Cabrera.
All hail the Bombers’ Savior, Mark Texeira. Big Tex has switched uniforms the past couple seasons at a good rate and should find some comfort in staying in one place. He’s a sure thing MVP candidate if he can carry this team until Alex Rodriguez returns. Ugh… Alex Rodriguez. Well we’ll see what Cody Ransom’s really got. He’s having a decent spring, leading the Yankees in at bats and hitting .286. He’s not going to come anywhere close to A-Rod production but it’s only for the start of the season.
Until A-Rod comes back, maybe May, the Yanks need to try to go at least .500 in that span. There’s just something about this team that I don’t like. I know I know, “what’s not to like?” Maybe it’s the fact that I grew up watching the dynasty Yankees. And hating them. This just isn’t the same. I say Wild Card champs.
Will Rays Shine as Bright in 2009?
Team Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
Projected MLB Rank: 12th — AL Rank: 5th — AL East Rank: 3rd — Record: (86-76)
To answer that question, I would say they will shine, just not as bright. It’s hard to match 97 wins no matter who you are. Lead by strong pitching, timely hitting, and a genius manager last season, the Rays will need more of the same if they want to end up playing past October 4.
They are returning with the same core as last season for the most part. A new acquisition is now DH (that’s weird for me to say) Pat Burrell. The world champion slugged 33 homeruns last season and drove in what was left for him after Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, which was 86 runs. Similar to Burrell, only from the left side of the plate, is firstbaseman Carlos Pena. He hit 31 homers last season while leading the team in RBIs with 102. Both Pena and Burrell hit around .250 as well. 
Stud youngsters Evan Longoria and BJ Upton also carry threat potential in this lineup. Longoria, only 23, hit 27 homeruns and drove in 85 runs in only 122 games last season. Imagine what he’ll do in a potential 162? Then with Upton, he really showed his true potential in the playoffs last season, despite only hitting .273 with 9 homeruns and driving in 67 during the regular season.
Secondbaseman Akinori Iwamura will likely lead things off for the Rays, and while his stats don’t really infer it–he’s a contact hitter. The anchor behind the plate remains 25 year old Dioner Navarro. He hit around .300 last season and drove in over 50, look for more of the same if not better with him. Hamstring trouble-ridden Carl Crawford should play a full season again as well. I feel like he’s been in the league for a long while, like he should be atleast 30. But he’s still 27!
The Rays boasted the second best ERA in the American League last season (3.82) and it all starts with their solid rotation. It starts with “big-game” James Shields. Shields posed a 3.56 ERA last season while winning 14 games while holding a 1.15 WHIP. He’s a control pitcher who can strikeout batters too.
Looks like the Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir deal worked out well for the Mets (sorry, had to take my Mets shot). Kazmir’s becoming a good lefthander and the 25-year old should have a better year than last in which he had a 3.29 ERA and went 12-8. Last year he also struck out 166 batters in about 152 innings. He will be a 20 game winner one day, just maybe not this year.
Matt Garza has the potential to be absolutely filthy, as he was in the minor leagues. Last year he only struck out about six batters per nine innings but showed all of America in the playoffs how good he is by going 2-1 with a strikeout an inning. Andy Sonnanstine, another great control pitcher, will reach the mid-teens in wins and give the Rays a solid WHIP. The fifth rotation spot is up for grabs between Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel. Whoever wins this job should be pitching for about a month and a half because I expect David Price to up in the big leagues by the end of May.
Veteran Troy Percival who’s ERA doesn’t give the correct impression for the job he did for this team last season. Before going down with an injury, he saved 28 games and appeared in 50 games for the Rays. Reliever Dan Wheeler had a nice season while posting a 0.99 WHIP and a 3.12 ERA in 70 games. Southpaw JP Howell is absolutely dirty. In 64 appearances last season, he struck out 92 batters and posted a 2.22 ERA. Hard throwing Grant Balfour should also be effective again coming out of the pen this year. Righthander Joe Nelson joins his fifth team in five years and should post a low ERA with a high strikeout rate. Jason Isringhausen also joins the bullpen and is presenting a really good case to join the roster this spring.
Overall, the Rays do look good this year. It’s hard to argue against 97 wins but this is such a tough division and I don’t think the Rays will be able to win all the close games they won last year. They’re an exciting team and I have them going close to the playoffs–but close doesn’t get you there.
Rox Look to Rebound from Rough 08
Season Preview: Colorado Rockies
Projec
ted MLB Rank: 13th — NL Rank: 8th — NL West Rank: 4th — Record: (85-77)
The Colorado Rockies were the story of 2007. They ran through September and the playoffs until they hit the wall in the World Series, also known as the Boston Red Sox. One year later, October 2008, they were sitting at home and watching eight other teams. They had harnessed a 74-88 record. Only four other NL teams did worse last year.
This season, the Rockies will attempt to recreate the two month magic they generated at the end of the 2007 season. This time, they need that magic for seven months.
This offense is one of the most potent in the league, even after trading away keystone Matt Holliday. Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, and veteran Todd Helton will be looked to to make up for that production. Helton had a very down year last year. Last year he played only half a season and still only hit 7 homeruns and drove in 29 RBIs. Even more concerning is the .264 average he posted in those games. Helton had hit for over .300 for the ten seasons before. The lifetime .328 hitter is 35 years old, but I do believe he can rebound from a low 2008 and regain his status as a consistent hitter.
Atkins, who had been rumored to be traded this offseason, seems to be staying in Denver for his contract year. He will post big production numbers and expect him to be traded if the Rockies are out of the race early. Brad Hawpe is a great ballplayer. He has the potential to hit 30 homeruns and drive in 100 runs now that Holliday isn’t there to take the production. He also has a cannon from rightfield.
Shortstop Troy Toluwitzki should continue to tear it up as he did last year at the end of the season as he hit .327 in the second half. Chris Iannetta did a great job in the WBC and should continue his rampage at Coors Field. In only 333 at bats last season, he hit 18 homeruns and drove in 65 RBIs.
Seth Smith, is a great hitter but has yet to show it at the major league level. Once he starts getting consistent time in Colorado, he will become a .300 hitter (I saw this kid hit for the cycle when he was with AAA Colorado Springs). There is a lot of competition for the starting centerfield spot. Ryan Spilborghs leads the way as he batted .313 in 89 games last season. Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez are also in the competition for the job, but I expect it to go to Spilborghs.
The pitching staff last season had a rough one. They had the second worst ERA in the NL (4.77) and gave up the third most runs per game (5.07). Losing Jeff Francis certainly hurts so now it starts off with Aaron Cook. The righty won 16 games last season with a 3.96 ERA. He’s a great pitcher for the thin Colorado air because he’s a sinkerballer, so expect more success from Cook in Colorado. Ubaldo Jimenez, who is the projected number two, is dirty. His stuff is phenomenal but he has control problems as he walked 103 batters last season. He had a good BAA last season (.245) so look for him to develop into a possible all star if he can get off to a good start.
Jason Marquis is the projected number three, coming over from the Cubs where he was the fifth starter. He’ll win you ballgames, but he won’t put up huge strikeout numbers and he will let guys get on base. Jorge De La Rosa’s stats don’t look too pretty last season but don’t be decieved. In the second half, he posted a 3.08 ERA with about a strikeout per inning. 23-year old Franklin Morales should compete for the last rotation spot along with Greg Smith and Jason Hirsh.
The bullpen is underrated. Manny Corpas and Huston Street are duking it out for the closer role. Corpas’ shaky 2008 might make him the eigth inning man and the experienced Street would get the closer role. Taylor Buchholz had a fine season last year posting a 2.17 ERA in 63 games. Jason Grilli had a great strikeout rate last season while compiling a 3.00 ERA. Alan Embree and Ryan Speier will also get a bunch of appearances out of the bullpen.
This is probably my biggest stretch of a prediction having the Rockies do 11 games better than they did last year. Especially finishing fourth in the division. I have the NL West as a strong division this year (another bold prediction). This division did get better though. I hear everyone that’s saying .500 could win the division, but I don’t feel like that will be the case this season with the west. It’s improving, and so are the Rockies with it.
Fantasy Team
We just had our fantasy draft. There are 16 teams in our league and I had the 11th pick. There are 25 spots on each roster. Before I list my team, here are the categories that we have in our league:
Hitting categories: R, H, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS
Pitching categories: W, CG, SHO, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP
Round 1: Ian Kinsler 2B – Kinsler does it all and even drives in runs out of the leadoff spot (71 RBIs last season). He hits for a high average and steals bases.
Round 2: Lance Berkman 1B - He’s got a great bat as he can hit over .300 and get you over 100 RBIs and possibly 30 homeruns.
Round 3: Roy Halladay SP – The first starting pitcher I took. All the other studs were gone. I thought getting him was a bargain in the third round due to the fact our league uses complete games and shutouts as a category.
Round 4: Joe Mauer C – Catcher is a thin position. So I went with Mauer. Despite injury potential, you cannot argue with over a .300 batting average.
Round 5: Chris Davis 1B/3B – If you read my blog, you know that I’m all about this kid. He’s a big lefty and can hit and he had a great half a season last year. And especially in this lineup, he will drive in runs.
Round 6: Joakim Soria RP – I seemed to be at the end of the stud closer run and Soria was the last one left. I’m just hoping he can reproduce his 2008 totals.
Round 7: Rich Harden SP
Round 8: Chris Young OF - Young has that rare combo of power and speed.
Round 9: Mike Aviles SS – I’m hoping Aviles can build upon the great rookie campaign he had in Kansas City. (.325/10HR/51RBI)
Round 10: Josh Johnson SP – Did a nice job last season in his 14 starts (7-1).
Round 11: Clayton Kershaw SP – Would this be considered taking a gamble?
Round 12: Mike Gonzalez RP
Round 13: Adam Lind OF - This is another one of those players that, if you follow my blog, you know I like them. I assume he will be in the middle of this Blue Jays lineup this year.
Round 14: Joey Devine RP – Now, I’m hoping that Devine wins the closer job. Even if he doesn’t, we get points for holds — so I can’t be too concerned. I was suprised Devine went this late as well. Ziegler was drafted only a few picks before this.
Round 15: Jack Cust OF – I follow up one Oakland A with another. I needed some more power and production (even if Cust doesn’t post the average).
Round 16: Chris Dickerson OF – I’m hoping Dickerson will get at least some starts. He can steal and has been doing well this spring.
Round 17: Chase Headley 3B/OF
Round 18: Matt Thornton RP – He should help in the hold category (although I think the hold is a rediculous statistic — it exists).
Round 19: Casey Kotchman 1B
Round 20: Matt LaPorta 1B/OF – With so many roster spots — why not?
Round 21: Ryan Madson RP – The “bridge to Lidge” should get me some holds.
Round 22: Elvis Andrus SS
Round 23: Mark Teahen 1B/3B/OF – He’s eligible all over.
Round 24: Seth Smith OF – He probably isn’t drafted in some leagues but I like him.
Round 25: Josh Willingham OF – Finish this team off with “the hammer.”
I feel pretty good about my team considering the fact there are sixteen teams in the league. Last year I won, so let’s see if I can repeat.
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